One thing I’ve been hearing a lot these past few weeks, something I almost never heard earlier in my career, is sellers asking, “Are you sure we can go that high?” That question alone tells you where the market is right now. We’re in one of those moments where, if a home is priced correctly, shows well, and is in a good school district, it can sell for more than most sellers would have realistically expected. This weekend alone, we saw over 40 offers submitted across just 5 homes. I’ll break that down below.
Over the last three years, the market has bounced between hot and cold, rarely settling anywhere in between. There was a brief stretch last summer where things finally felt balanced. Sellers were still getting strong prices, and buyers could take a breath, make offers, and actually do inspections without feeling rushed. It was a real, functional market, and it didn’t last long.
I saw someone describe the market like a hot pocket. You take it out of the microwave and one bite burns your mouth while the next is still frozen. That’s exactly what this market feels like right now, but it’s not random. It depends on what you’re looking at. Single family homes in the right neighborhoods are moving fast and escalating to new highs, while condos and less competitive neighborhoods are sitting and struggling to get traction.
Last year, out of roughly 22,000 agents in our market, I was officially ranked in the top 20. When you strip out the teams and look at individual agents, only a handful actually sold more homes than I did. I say that for one reason. The volume of deals we’re involved in gives me a very clear, balanced, and real-time view of the market.
What’s actually happening right now
This weekend alone, Aria, my buyers agent, and I were in the middle of 7 negotiations, hosted 3 open houses, and had a steady stream of conversations with agents, buyers, and builders. It was a clear snapshot of what’s actually happening on the ground.
The demand we saw earlier this year when rates dipped below six percent is still very real, especially for move up buyers. These are people moving because they need to, whether it’s schools, work, or commute. We wrote 5 offers in Northern Virginia and ran into more than 40 competing offers. Not a typo. More than 40.
We listed a single family home in Arlington at what the sellers thought was an aggressive price. It still drew 6 offers and sold well over asking. Two other Arlington homes, one at $900,000 and another at $1.2 million, received 14 and 10 offers respectively.
As you move further out into the suburbs, things are still strong but noticeably less intense. A single family home in Ashburn listed at $1.15 million got 5 offers. A home in Kingstown around $750,000 had 7 offers as well, but the prices & competition felt more reasonable.
The opportunity for buyers is still in Washington DC proper. We put two homes under contract under asking price with no competition. That’s the frozen side of the market right now.
Finally, the single family new construction market in Loudoun County is mixed. Some neighborhoods, especially on the higher end, are still selling well. Meanwhile, entry level homes are working much harder to sell, relying on concessions, rate buy downs, and incentives to get deals done.
I visited a new listing in Vienna last night, just under $2MIL, and there was virtually a line of agents and buyers trying to get in the house. I will very likely get upwards to 10 offers. Finally, while researching a home in Falls Church City, I couldn't believe that there were only 3 single family homes active on the market, incredibly low inventory for this time of year.
So what does all of this actually mean?
If anything, the biggest shift over the last four years has been psychological. Buyers used to be consumed with the idea of overpaying or buying at the top of the market. That concern has mostly faded. Buyers seem to believe that homes are simply expensive, and likely to stay that way. Whether that’s right or wrong is a separate conversation, but it’s clearly influencing behavior.
There’s also a broader shift in how people are reacting to the economy according to some respected pundits I follow online. In past downturns, people tightened up, spent less, and focused on stability. Now it feels different. There’s less urgency to cut back and more of a sense that some things are out of their control, so they might as well enjoy what they can.
If buyers are feeling uncertainty with everything happening in the world, it’s not showing up in how they’re acting. If anything, the mindset seems to be simple. If everything else feels unpredictable, at least have a home you actually want to live in.
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