It’s only been a few weeks into 2024 but as we progress through the year, it's important to understand the evolving trends that could impact both buyers and sellers in the current market.
Inventory Levels: A Steady Increase
We are witnessing a gradual rise in inventory. The increase from 505,223 to 506,414 in just one week, while modest, is indicative of a market that is slowly moving towards a balance. This is a huge shift from the inventory bottom of 240,194 in 2022!
New Listings: Subtle Growth
The new listings have increased year over year, though not significantly large. The numbers, 44,244 in 2024 versus 42,620 in 2022, point towards a market that is gradually recovering.
Price Cut Percentage: A Declining Trend
Interestingly, the percentage of price cuts is decreasing, 31.4% of listings in 2024 had a price cut, down from 34.7% in 2023. This suggests demand is stable enough to prevent a drop in prices, unlike how we started in 2023.
Purchase Application Data: A Positive Indicator
Despite an uptick in mortgage rates, purchase applications have shown a 9% week-to-week increase. This is an important indicator of new buyers coming into the market. Still down year over year but headed in the right direction for home sellers.
Mortgage Rates and Economic Indicators: Key Factors to Monitor
The relationship between mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury yield remains a pivotal aspect of the current market. Presently, mortgage rates have reached a two-month peak, fluctuating between 6.77% and 6.92%, while the 10-year yield hovers around 4%. This situation probably means higher rates, challenging the assumption of an imminent decline.
In Conclusion:
So far, 2024 is a market of gradual shifts, cautious optimism, and a delicate balance between supply and demand. Whether you're a buyer eyeing a competitive edge or a seller timing your next move, understanding these trends is your ticket to success.
*Note: The data and insights in this post are based on information from Altos Research and HousingWire.
