A Wild Week for Home Buyers and Sellers
Just when it looked like the mortgage rollercoaster might finally slow down, this week ripped the tracks out from under us. After a brief stretch of sanity—buyers getting quoted rates in the high 5s and low 6s—the entire system buckled in real time. Within 13 hours of Trump announcing sweeping new tariffs on over 60 countries, markets imploded. Treasury yields surged—because investors dumped bonds in panic—and mortgage rates followed, blowing past 7%. That’s how the system works: when bond prices fall, yields rise, and since mortgage rates are closely linked to the 10-year Treasury, they shoot up too.
And then—just like that—the tariffs were paused for 90 days.
The official line was that it was about diplomacy and “review periods,” but let’s be real—many were hoping that if the market had to take a beating, at least interest rates would drop as a silver lining. Lower rates would’ve given the real estate sector a much-needed lifeline: refinancing opportunities, renewed buyer demand, and some breathing room in a tightening market.
I try to rarely share my opinion—because, frankly, it’s just that: an opinion. And for whatever I might think, there’s almost certainly someone smarter, more experienced, and better credentialed on the other side of the argument. That’s why I stick to the facts. The data, the patterns, and what we’re actually seeing in the market—that’s where the value is.
What I saw over the past week was a clear pullback in buyer activity—on both sides of the table. On our listings, showing traffic dropped noticeably. And among our buyer clients, at least two made the decision to pause their search altogether. On the seller side, nerves are setting in.
Inventory is beginning to stack up across the DMV. In one Arlington, VA neighborhood where we’re about to launch a new listing, there were only six sales in all of 2024. Today? There are seven active listings—that’s effectively a full year of inventory sitting on the market.
It’s a pattern that’s starting to repeat. In a Fairfax community where we listed a home recently, three other properties hit the market the same week. Based on the most recent pace of sales, that equates to roughly six months of inventory in a single shot. To be clear, this isn’t happening in a vacuum. Sales volume in 2024 was historically low. That’s exactly why, when the first wave of well-presented homes hit the market in early 2025, buyers swarmed—and the frenzy made sense.
As I’ve said before, two key forces have been fueling this market: painfully low inventory and confident buyers—many of whom felt financially flush after the post-election market rally and secure in their jobs. But when either of those factors wobbles, especially both at once, the energy in the market shifts fast.
What This Means for DC & Northern Virginia Home Sellers
Buyer hesitation is real. When rates spike, buyer traffic slows—sometimes dramatically. That doesn’t mean the market freezes, but it can feel like it. What’s actually happening is the market becomes more selective, more segmented, and more cautious.
Right now, the DC metro market is highly volatile and deeply bifurcated. Different segments are reacting in very different ways. High-end buyers aren’t necessarily rate-sensitive, but they are wealth-sensitive—if the market shaves 10% off their portfolio, they may hit pause. On the other end, condo buyers aren’t panicking over the Fed—they’re focused on one thing: their monthly payment. For them, it’s still a rent-versus-buy decision, and the math is tighter than ever.
In this kind of environment, pricing is everything. Overpricing is a killer. Homes that linger on the market for more than two weeks risk going stale—especially when buyers are already stretching their budgets.
That said, quality still wins. If your home is in a desirable neighborhood and priced in line with current market conditions, serious buyers are still out there. They’re just moving with more scrutiny and less urgency. The window is still open—but only for sellers who play it smart.
What This Means for Home Buyers
Expect more inventory this spring—I feel confident saying that (and if I’m wrong, you can remind me). We’re already seeing signs of it, and the pace of new listings should pick up as sellers adjust to the new market reality.
That said, don’t count on meaningful interest rate relief anytime soon. The smart move right now? Stay grounded. When you make an offer, base it on what you can actually afford and what the home is actually worth. If prices have dipped 5% in a given area, your offer should reflect that. It’s not an exact science, but in a volatile market with less competition, you can—and should—negotiate with confidence.
If you’re in the market for a condo, a smaller townhome, or even a fixer-upper, keep your eyes open. We’re likely to see a wave of these properties hit the market soon. Why? Because many boomers and small-time investors—watching their retirement accounts take a hit—may finally decide it’s time to cash out of that rental or investment property before values slide any further.
The key is discipline. Stick to your numbers, stay patient, and let the market come to you.
Looking Ahead: Navigating the Next 90 Days
We’re now in a holding pattern—at least until July 8, when the 90-day tariff pause is set to expire. Between now and then, expect continued volatility in both interest rates and market activity.
If you’re buying, this is the moment to have a serious conversation with your lender. Ask about rate locks and float-down options in case rates improve—you need a plan, not just pre-approval.
If you’re selling, be proactive. Talk with your agent about pricing strategy, staging, and how to make your home stand out. Don’t assume buyers will line up just because inventory is rising. This isn’t 2021—it’s a more tactical market now.
Final Thoughts: Stay Calm, Stay Smart
Yes, it’s been a wild week. And yes, the headlines are chaotic. But DC real estate has seen worse—shutdowns, rate shocks, political drama—and it keeps moving.
The key is strategy. Whether you’re buying or selling, staying informed and making disciplined decisions is how you win in this kind of market.
📩 Have questions or want to talk through your next move? I’m here. No pressure—just straight answers and a clear plan for whatever comes next.
