A Quick Story and the Bigger Point
In 2005, as a college junior driving a gold V6 Mustang, I sold my first home, a condo in Falls Church, for $299,900. Almost twenty years later, I sold that same condo again for $325,000. Technically the price went up, but it’s a reminder that real estate doesn’t always move in a straight line. Over those two decades, I’ve helped that same client buy and sell six homes (culminating this year with a custom waterfront new build!) while closing more than a billion dollars in sales along the way.
What feels second nature to me often surprises consumers: fall is one of the best times to sell in the DC metro. The assumption is that once school starts, buyers vanish and the market cools. Not true. Year after year, fall proves its strength, and the data backs it up. The reality is that the pent up supply creates demand, the Federal Government dishes out contracts, and year after year the fall proves robust.
The Post–Labor Day Wake-Up
After Labor Day, the market wakes up. New listings in July and August typically fall off, which sets the stage for a rush of fresh inventory in the fall—often some of the best homes of the year. In September 2024, supply jumped 38 percent year over year while pending sales surged more than 41 percent. New inventory brings out new buyers. The market not only absorbed that new inventory, it also cleared out many stagnant summer listings. Homes tend to sell faster in fall than in summer: recent years show about 20 days on market in August, 19 in September, and 18 in October. Spring still reigns at roughly 14 days, but fall clearly outperforms summer.
From 2020 through 2023, the pandemic blurred seasonality and the market moved at a steady pace year-round. That era is over. With return-to-office, the back-to-school shift, and last year’s general chaos, a wave of delayed transactions is poised to hit this fall.
The Federal Fiscal-Year Tailwind
The Federal Government, the backbone of our local economy, plays a unique role in shaping the DC housing market. The federal fiscal year ends on September 30, and the “use it or lose it” budget cycle is very real. Agencies—and the contractors who serve them—must obligate funds by the deadline or risk forfeiting them, which can mean smaller allocations the following year.
In practice, this creates a massive year-end spending surge. Data shows that federal agencies and contractors spend roughly 16% of their entire annual budget in September alone, and in the final two weeks of the fiscal year, spending spikes to nearly four times the average weekly pace.
How Federal Awards Become Buyers
That flood of awards forces contracting officers to push contracts through before the fiscal year closes, which in turn creates a sudden surge of work for contractors. To meet those obligations, contractors have to staff up quickly—extending employees, issuing promotions, and relocating talent into the DC metro area.
Those job changes flow directly into housing activity. A cleared candidate offered a new role at Booz Allen in late September is house-hunting by October. A GS employee who just earned a promotion or step increase is suddenly in a position to trade up. Even existing homeowners who win new contracts may leverage the added job security or higher income to finally make a move.
When you layer that hiring wave on top of the Fall housing cycle, the effect compounds. Fresh listings, stronger inventory, and a new group of highly motivated, well-qualified buyers collide all at once. It’s a big reason why September through November consistently deliver stronger-than-expected results in the DC metro housing market, despite the common belief that activity slows once school is back in session.
So What About DOGE, and How Will This Year Be Different?
So what about DOGE and how will this year be different? There is currently a Federal hiring freeze through October 15th across most agencies, with the exception of critical roles, however this freeze does not apply to public safety and national security, this can be read as the Defence Industry, which plays an outsize role in our economy. After October 15th, they may extend the hiring freeze or implement a one-for-four rule (one hire for every four departures). So keeping with the theme of this year, expect a delayed start to the season.
Spring vs. Fall: How to Think About Pricing
Spring’s comps set the benchmark. List in March and you are coming off four to five quiet months, so pricing involves some discovery. The upside is that spring runs long, roughly March 1 through June 30, so you can adjust, test a higher ask, and still find the market. Fall is different. The window is short but strong with far less tolerance for overpricing. Spring gives us the comp set that shows which price points and strategies worked and which did not, so we can price a fall listing with precision. Fall traffic is lighter but more serious, and with year end approaching a slice of buyers needs or wants to close before December 31, so they will compromise in ways they would not in April.
Northern Virginia Right Now
So how is the market in Northern Virginia right now? In July 2025 the median sales price was $760,073, up 3.4 percent year over year, with average days on market at 20. Supply sits near two months, and active listings total 2,530, up 43.4 percent from a year ago. That added inventory is a mix of homes that failed to sell in spring and new listings coming online. As I wrote recently, the pattern holds: the market is bifurcated. Top neighborhoods and exceptional homes are selling well, while the middle is grinding. DC proper remains weak, with a few bright spots in established areas like Chevy Chase and Capitol Hill. The net, it’s a balanced market. Expect longer days on market and more give-and-take on terms, but sellers who set realistic expectations and price to the data will succeed.
National GUARD in DC
While I am not totally ready to comment on this yet, the elephant in the room is the push to federalize DC’s police force and what that means for housing. Many DC residents I speak with like the idea in principle, but execution and collateral effects will decide the outcome. Given the narrative of crime and chaos, some would-be DC buyers may shift to the suburbs and some city sellers may accelerate plans to move. It is too early to call and I hope to provide more context and updates as this progresses.
Bottom line, fall is often the best window for well-prepared homes in Northern Virginia and DC. The federal year end will still push contractor hiring despite DOGE, thanks to the defense and national security exceptions, and that demand tends to hit our market from late September through early November. My call for this year is a later but concentrated surge of serious buyers. If you are sale-ready, launch right after Labor Day or no later than mid-October, price to today’s comps, and you will do well.
