This is a very different newsletter than the one I planned to write. I originally intended to focus on the flood of national housing headlines and what they supposedly mean for local markets, most of which arrive fast, loud, and with far more certainty than they deserve. Those headlines include a proposed ban on institutional buyers purchasing single-family homes, a presidential directive for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to buy roughly $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities which successfully got rates below 6% for the first time since 2022, and the continued consolidation of the largest real estate brokerages in the country.
The working title was something like "How National Headlines Affect Local Markets."
Then this past weekend happened.
Why Q4 Was a Pause, Not a Problem
A few weeks ago, I wrote that the frozen market we saw in Q4, driven largely by the government shutdown and broader uncertainty, was unlikely to cause lasting damage. Historically, shutdowns do not destroy demand. They delay it. Buyers and sellers pause. They do not disappear. When uncertainty lifts, activity tends to return quickly.
I expected a bump in Q1 and advised sellers who were otherwise ready to list sooner rather than later. What unfolded this weekend, however, went well beyond a bump. I anticipated elevated demand earlier in the year than normal. I did not anticipate the intensity of what actually transpired.
What I Actually Saw on the Ground
This was one of the busiest open house weekends I’ve seen, full stop, and easily the busiest in the last three years. Not just raw foot traffic, but focused, serious buyers. People who understood the homes, asked informed questions, and followed up the same day. Multiple properties saw dozens of showings and ten or more offers, not because of gimmicks, but because the right inventory finally showed up.
I mentioned the “first flower effect” last week. The first decent homes of the season often attract an outsized reaction simply because buyers have been starved for options. That happens every year, and even more so over the last few years given how historically constrained inventory has been. This did not feel like that. The behavior was too consistent and too intentional.
To sanity check it, I paid attention to what happened beyond any single open house and spoke to dozens of agents. Throughout the weekend, I heard from multiple buyers who had been dormant. Not new entrants and not impulsive shoppers. These were buyers who had been tracking the market quietly, fully aware of pricing and rates, but unwilling to engage because there was little worth pursuing or interest rates were too daunting. Every one of them said the same thing without prompting. The open houses were the busiest they had ever seen.
Most of this activity was below the two million dollar mark, where monthly payments actually matter and where lower rates directly affects buyer behavior. This was not speculative demand. It was pent-up, rate-sensitive demand responding to real inventory.
I normally treat industry social media as entertainment, not data. But even there, the message was consistent. Agents were reporting stale listings suddenly getting multiple offers. Sight-unseen offers reappearing. Properties that had been ignored for weeks were being pulled into competitive situations.
After roughly forty-five conversations and fielding ten offers on one of my own listings, it was clear the original blog needed to wait. This was the story that needed to be told.
Why Buyers Moved All at Once
The message from buyers has been consistent and, frankly, more rational than the headlines would suggest.
There simply had not been a good house to buy in months, not necessarily years, but months.
Many of these buyers were not casually browsing or timing the market. They were paying close attention the entire time and deliberately sitting out because the inventory did not justify action. I heard dozens of buyers say they started looking recently, within the last 6 months. They understood pricing, they understood rates, and when rates were at 6-7%, the idea of chasing mediocre or overpriced homes in an uncertain environment wasn't something they were interested in. When decent inventory finally hit the market, they moved decisively. These buyers were not willing to over pay or go nuts for a house, but they were willing to put forward mostly reasonable offers.
Rates played a major role as well, but not in the way most commentary suggests. Last week’s announcement that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would step in to purchase $200 Billion of mortgage-backed securities helped push rates lower, but just as importantly, it pulled rates back into the headlines and public conversation in a very visible way.
The average 30-year fixed rate moved back under six percent for the first time since 2022, and many buyers are now seeing quotes in the low to mid fives, often through ARM products. A year ago, those same buyers were looking at rates near seven percent. Even six months ago, they were meaningfully higher. Rates have been so volatile, there is no guarantee these low rates will stick around, so for payment sensitive buyers, they felt pressure to act.
So Who Is Actually Selling Into This?
Many sellers assume lower rates automatically mean an easier, more profitable selling environment. Historically, that’s not always true. Lower rates tend to bring buyers back, but they also bring sellers back. As borrowing costs ease, homeowners who had been sitting on the sidelines become more willing to give up their existing loans, life moves restart, and inventory increases. The result is often more competition, not less, even as demand improves.
Of the six properties I either seriously inquired about or was directly involved with, three were boomer sellers who had simply reached a life transition. They delayed a year or two longer than originally planned and decided it was time. One seller had a new home delivering within sixty days after a year-long build process, which effectively forced their timing. Another was relocating for work. And finally, one segment of sellers I expect to see more of: investors or landlords who held onto low payments and chose to rent instead are beginning to sell, and that cohort is likely to grow meaningfully as the year progresses.
These were not traditional move-up sellers or families timing a sale around school calendars. That group typically appears later in the spring, once logistics, schools, and timing align.
Inventory is beginning to come back, but it is lagging current demand. We saw a similar pattern around this time last year, where demand re-engaged first and supply followed with a delay, eventually catching up and, in some segments, it shifted into a buyers market.
Are Homes Suddenly Selling for Much More?
Multiple offers and above-asking sales are not the result of some brilliant, 4D chess agent strategy. Most agents, when competing for a listing, push pricing toward the top of the perceived range. When they are not competing, they tend to price closer to what they believe fair market value or appraisal will support.
Multiple offers are common. Predicting the exact ceiling in advance is not.
In a healthy seller’s market, which is what many people have grown accustomed to over the last several years, a well-priced home typically sells one to three percent over asking. That is already a strong outcome in an appreciating market where prices tend to rise year over year. It reflects buyers competing within a relatively rational range.
This past weekend was different.
In this environment, demand is not just strong, it is temporarily overwhelming the available inventory. When ten offers are chasing a single home, pricing behavior changes. Buyers stop anchoring to list price and start anchoring to each other. That dynamic is reminiscent of the COVID-era market, not because conditions are identical, but because the imbalance between demand and supply is similarly acute.
In the case of my own listing, there were 10 offers. The top three clustered around 8% over asking. Five were at or 1-2% above list price. Two were around 3% over. The eventual winner came in roughly five percent over asking with the strongest overall terms. There was not a huge appetite to waive contingencies, skip inspections, etc for the majority of contracts.
There was no obvious winner out of the gate. There was a process. The result came from carefully working the top offers to balance price, certainty, and risk.
The Takeaway Most People Will Miss
This does not mean the market has “turned,” and it does not mean we are back to 2021. What it does mean is that demand can re-engage quickly, well before headlines catch up and long before it feels “safe.” Buyers who wait for confirmation from the news are usually reacting to what has already happened, not positioning themselves for what is unfolding.
The same applies to inventory. There is no such thing as the perfect home appearing at the perfect moment, neatly aligned with perfect conditions.