Before the March inventory data came in, it felt like 2021 all over again — buyers were acting like they’d never see another decent house hit the market. It was open house chaos. Every new listing, no matter how average, drew a crowd. I wrote about that frenzy [insert link to previous blog], and frankly, it looked like more of the same this year.
But there’s a shift in the air.
New listings jumped 45% from February to March 2025, the biggest month-over-month increase we’ve seen in over a year. It’s a welcome development — and one that buyers have been desperate for.
Still, let’s be clear: this is not a buyer’s market. It’s not even close. The amount of good-quality, well-priced inventory is nowhere near enough to meet demand. The competition is still fierce, especially in desirable neighborhoods. March may have delivered relief — but not balance.
With anything in real estate, nuance matters — and so does the segment you’re looking at. The condo market is not the same as the single-family market, and overpriced homes? They’ll sit no matter what the broader conditions are.
What’s moving right now? Well-priced, move-in ready single-family homes and updated townhomes at attainable price points. Demand for those is still strong, and inventory is still thin — but it’s improving. You can feel it in the agent chatter. The forums, the Facebook groups — the entire Realtor community knows something’s shifting.
This year’s unusually sluggish start wasn’t just about rates or affordability. It was also about the weather — literally. The DC region experienced its worst winter in over a decade, with multiple snowstorms, extended school closures, and frigid temps. The usual early-February seller wave simply didn’t materialize.
Add to that the presidential election in November and the January 2025 inauguration, and you had plenty of would-be sellers choosing to wait it out. In politically sensitive markets like DC, election-year uncertainty often freezes more than just the sidewalks.In politically sensitive markets like Washington D.C., election years often see slower starts to the year as administrations turn over.
The March surge didn’t come out of nowhere — it was delayed.
Even before March, we were seeing signs that inventory was building:
Bottom line? Inventory was thawing before March — but March is when the dam broke.
Will April and May continue the March momentum? Or was this just a short-term burst of pent-up listings, finally hitting after months of weather, politics, and hesitation?
More homes on the market doesn't mean less competition. But it does mean that sellers with stale listings or poor pricing will get punished. Homes that are turnkey and realistically priced will still move fast. Everything else? Not so much.
Rates remain stubbornly high. If the new inventory surge gets met with a spike in mortgage rates — which is a real risk given inflation pressures — demand could soften just as supply picks up. That’s the delicate balance to watch.
Q1 2025 ended in the red — the S&P 500 finished down 3.34% YTD. That doesn’t just hurt confidence. It affects buyer liquidity, especially in a market like DC where down payments often come from portfolio assets.
The Trump administration announced sweeping tariffs this week — a 10% baseline on all imports, plus higher rates for specific categories. That’s going to impact the cost of materials, consumer goods, and potentially the broader economy. It could pressure inflation, raise costs for renovations, and even put upward pressure on mortgage rates if the Fed feels the heat. Translation: more uncertainty.
Yes, inventory is finally moving — and March’s 45% surge in new listings is real. It’s the most positive supply-side development we’ve seen in the DC metro in a long time.
But don’t confuse more listings with market balance. The spring market is here — delayed but not diminished — and we’re still deep in seller’s market territory.
The market is constantly evolving and changing, almost on a week by week basis, feel free to reach out if you have any questions, concerns, or are curious what selling might look like for you right now.