We’re six weeks into the year and the spring market is starting to take shape. While the last few weeks around here have been slowed to a crawl thanks to the weather and the unrelenting snowcrete, I figured this was a good opportunity for an old fashioned market update. All of the information below is pulled from our local MLS data which can be found here: https://www.brightmls.com/marketreports
The national headlines are starting to settle into a narrative that the housing is slowing down, prices are flat or negative, and inventory is surging. That could not be more different than our local market. What’s happening across the country often has very little to do with what’s happening here. Even locally, this isn’t one market and the differences between county, neighborhood, and property type are massive.
What we’re actually seeing is multiple markets moving in different directions at the same time.
Last year at this time, the psychology was completely different. There was almost unbridled enthusiasm and optimism that the good times would keep rolling and that interest rates would eventually come down.
We had just come off an election. Between November 2024 and February 2025, the stock market ripped nearly 20%. Bitcoin and crypto surged roughly 40%. If you were like me, and like many of my millennial peers, you were probably heavily exposed to tech and your portfolio was up even more and there was no end in sight...so we thought.
Buyers felt flush. Down payments were larger than I had ever seen. I rarely saw anything less than 20% down, and often much more. Mortgage rates were close to 7%, but buyers had cash, prices had been relatively flat for two years, and with fewer homes for sale, confidence was high. That confidence pushed people into the market despite higher interest rates.
Then that changed, and it changed quickly, heading into the spring market and the era of DOGE, tariffs, and rates that refused to cooperate the market quickly soured and almost overnight it went from a sellers market to a buyers market.
This year feels different, and the shift in buyer behavior caught almost everyone off guard. If you’re seeing agents brag about multiple offers and sales over asking price, understand that most of us had very little to do with that :) Coming off a dismal fourth quarter in 2025, there wasn’t much in the data that suggested a strong start to the year.
Markets have been mostly flat, pretty much opposite of last year. If you were overexposed to tech and AI stocks, you were likely down, flat at best. Bitcoin has lost nearly half its value from recent highs. In this region especially, many buyers make decisions based on their portfolios. That portfolio-driven confidence simply wasn’t there like it was last year.
However, one major factor changed the equation more than most people expected: mortgage rates dipped below 6% for the first time in three years. Turns out, buyers will overpay for a lower mortgage rate.
Not all property types are created equal right now. It is not even close.
The headline for detached single family homes is sales down but prices up. This is still an extremely tight market and if you own a detached home in a strong school district with a reasonable commute, your market is healthy.
Condos are a different universe. Sales continue to drop with no end in sight. Between January last year and this year, sales have dropped 22 percent and prices continue to go down. All the while, inventory continues to pile up. Between financing complications, rising HOA fees, and insurance costs, buyers are simply not as aggressive in this segment.
Townhomes fall somewhere in the middle. Pricing is flat but days on market have nearly doubled and unless you are in a better school district or offer a better commute, that segment of the market is sort of frozen. It will be interesting to see what happens here.
Fairfax County continues to be the strongest market throughout the DC metro area and it's not even close. The appeal of a better commute, better schools, and strong employment prove to be the difference.
Closed sales and new pending sales are up, with homes under contract up more than 13% over last year. With less than one months of inventory available, particularly for single family homs, this market is extremely tight.
Loudoun saw a significant drop in closings (down 20.4%), but pending sales are starting to ramp up more with more than 15% compared to last year. This suggest new well priced inventory is starting to get absorbed while stale overpriced homes continue to sit on the market.
Arlington’s closings are down sharply (down 25.4%), this is where condos and TH;s are struggling the most but median price jumped significantly, almost 15%. That’s a classic low-volume dynamic where demand for Single family homes are not finding the inventory.
The properties that are selling are selling high. The lower end is struggling.
Alexandria’s median price drop looks dramatic on paper (down 23.8%), but that is largely a product mix issue driven by condos.
What matters more is inventory: active listings are up 50%, the biggest jump anywhere locally. That’s worth watching.
What It All Means Heading Into Spring
So what does all of this mean?
This is not a frenzied market. It’s also not a collapsing one.
It’s a selective market.
Buyers are motivated by lower rates and the reality that they cannot keep waiting forever. Nationally, home sales have hovered around 4 million annually the past two years, well below the 5.3 million pace we saw in 2019. There’s still pent-up demand out there.
But buyers are not throwing money at anything. They are prioritizing commute and schools. They are studying value. And they are walking away from overpriced or compromised properties.
If you’re selling a detached home in a strong Northern Virginia school pyramid, you are still in a position of strength. If you’re selling a townhome or condo, pricing discipline matters more than ever.
And if you’re buying, you finally have a little breathing room without losing leverage in the best neighborhoods.
As we move into the heart of spring, I expect activity to pick up. But I do not expect chaos. The buyers are there. They’re just more rational.
Want a Read on Your Specific Neighborhood?
If you want a direct read on your neighborhood, your school pyramid, and your price point, reach out. That’s what I’m here for.