I recently celebrated fifteen years as an independent broker (and wrote about it here), and in all that time one thing has never changed: every fall, buyers and sellers in Northern Virginia and Washington, DC ask the same question, "where is the market heading?" This year, the answer is clearer than it has been in a long time. The data, the sentiment on the ground, and the economic backdrop all point in the same direction.
I started drafting this blog and realized I was burying the lede, so let me be clear up front: all signs point to a buyers’ market this fall, and a rate cut is not going to save sellers despite their wishful thinking. Inventory is ballooning, prices are slipping in key counties, and homes are sitting nearly twice as long as last year, all against the backdrop of federal layoffs, record job losses, and an unstable political climate. All of this comes on the heels of one of my busiest summers ever, with more than fifty million dollars in closed and pending sales. Read to the end to see how each market in our region is performing compared to last year.
The numbers back it up. In Fairfax County, inventory is up more than thirty percent from last year, and homes are sitting an average of fourteen days on market, which is double last August. Prices also peaked in June of 2025 and we have seen prices come down in July and August.
Arlington is one of the few places where prices have actually gone up year over year, driven in part by the return to the office and the premium buyers place on shorter commutes. The median price now sits at $750,000. On the surface that looks strong, but underneath the cracks are clear. Homes are taking twenty four days to sell, which is twice as long as last year, and active listings have jumped forty three percent. Rising prices paired with slowing sales and swelling supply is not a good sign.
Washington, DC proper is already in full blown buyers’ territory with nearly five months of supply, homes sitting an average of thirty three days, and sellers steadily losing equity.
All summer, the buzz was the same: interest rates. For three years it has been the obsession, but this time felt different. Buyers and sellers alike were convinced a Fed rate cut would slash mortgage rates and flip the market back to a seller’s advantage. The problem is that it was not true this summer, and it is not true now. When I reminded people that mortgage rates are actually at their lowest point in over a year, most had no idea. Dozens of smart, educated people I spoke with all repeated the same misconception. The truth is that mortgage rates move ahead of Fed action, and if the Fed cuts deeper than expected it will only be because jobs and the economy are in bad shape. If someone tells you lower rates or Fed cuts will magically make the market pop, stop listening. My feed is full of agents practically throwing a party every time rates tick down, preaching hurry up and buy. It is embarrassing.
We have seen this play out before. Between 2013 and 2019, rates hovered between three and five percent, lower than almost any stretch in history. Prices in the D.C. metro did not boom, they stayed flat. At the end of 2013 the median price of a home in our market was three hundred fifty three thousand dollars and by early 2019 it had only inched up to three hundred eighty five thousand dollars. What did change was mobility. More people moved, inventory turned over, and buyers had choices. The lock in effect disappears when rates fall, and suddenly more sellers feel comfortable listing. That is why lower rates often mean more inventory first, not runaway price growth. We saw it again in late 2019 and even briefly in early 2020 when rates dropped and listings rose. The assumption that a Fed cut will hand sellers back the upper hand ignores this history.
The suburbs are starting to crack and the city is already slow. Fairfax and Arlington are showing rising inventory and longer timelines, while Washington, DC is sitting on nearly five months of supply. Sellers may still be quoting last year’s comps, but the leverage has shifted. This fall, buyers should recognize the moment, push harder than they have in years, and negotiate with confidence. The market is theirs for the taking.
I regularly turn to the Redfin Housing Data website when tracking the market and doing research. Below are the key data points broken down by region, highlighting where inventory is building, where days on market are stretching, and where prices are beginning to slip.
Fairfax County
Arlington County
Alexandria City
Loudoun County
Falls Church City
Washington, DC Proper